
How to save the Asia-Pacific region from breaking into rival trading blocs
The US-China trade war has triggered the start of a decoupling process between the two rival superpowers that is spreading to countries aligned with them. Reputable middle powers such as Australia must resist, and instead work on new approaches to liberalising regional and global trade.
Economic Note: Competition in the Aviation Sector
The Productivity Commission estimates that productivity growth has been responsible for almost all the increase in Australia’s GDP per person since Federation. Yet after the worst decade of productivity performance in 60 years to 2020, productivity growth has declined even further in the past three years. It is little surprise, then, that the need for improved productivity growth in coming decades was signalled as a central tenet of Treasury’s recent Intergenerational Report.

High-level dialogue to help put the Australia-China relationship on the right track
This week’s resumption of the Australia-China High Level Dialogue is a further opportunity to stabilise and strengthen the relationship between our two countries. Nothing is lost and much can be gained by working with China to find common ground on issues relating to trade, investment, education and decarbonisation.

Could the Future Fund help Australia match the distorting largesse now being handed out by the US administration?
Fifteen years ago, Ross Garnaut described policy to deal with climate change as a diabolical problem. As the Albanese Labor government and the Labor-dominated state and territory governments grapple with emission reductions, decarbonisation policy dilemmas have become even more complex, more diabolical.

Simplifying Australia’s trade system can be the next leap towards free trade
Australia has an opportunity to develop and share a simplified trade system that could be the new-generation equivalent of tariff reductions in the pursuit of free and open trade.

The dubious statistic steering the Reserve Bank
It is now unarguable that the Reserve Bank’s dubious economic models are driving its monetary policy decisions. Chillingly, if its models are wrong, so have been and will be its decisions on interest rates.

The pet shop galah never changes its tune
Here we go again: a chorus of economists and other critics calling for governments to increase the nation’s productivity growth. It’s a familiar cry but just as lacking in feasible government policy prescriptions as it has ever been.

Australia has a chance to help save free trade
Australia does not have to stand by helplessly while superpower tensions wreck the rules-based system of trade. There are things that like-minded allies can do.

Hope Springs Eternal - The Stan Kelly Lecture
It is an honour to have been asked to deliver the Stan Kelly lecture. Not because I knew Stan Kelly, but because I support his worldly philosophy – his advocacy of tariff reductions and open trade.

The Greens oppose the only effective remedy for the rental crisis
If the Greens are really opposed to housing demand drivers like immigration, then they should say so.

The RBA is deciding rates on dated data
If the RBA is planning to lift rates until it is happy with productivity, then we are all in big trouble.

The RBA is taking Australia to a precipice
Inflation is falling. There in no wage-price spiral. The central bank does not need to trigger a recession to contain them.
Economic Note: The RBA has done (more than) enough tightening
Having lifted the cash rate 11 times in the last 12 months, the RBA risks triggering a recession if it continues on its tightening path. The sharp lift in inflation as the economy roared back to life following the COVID-19 pandemic warranted a series of cash-rate increases. But the main source of inflation at that time was not excess demand but supply shortages, which could be expected to ease of their own accord, without needing to squeeze money out of the economy to drive down demand.

Progressives are asleep to Albanese’s ambition
The Rip Van Winkles who expect the prime minister to break the election promise on the stage three tax cuts need to wake up to his plan to make Labor the natural party of government.
Economic Note: Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) Reform
The PRRT as currently designed allows gas companies to claim 50 per cent of the value of gas delivered to market as its unprocessed value and 50 per cent of its value is caused by liquefying the gas. That is, the expenses associated with transforming unprocessed natural gas into liquefied natural gas (LNG) can be deducted from the price of LNG sold into the international market.

PRRT reforms offer a fairer return to taxpayers and stability for the industry
Closing out unduly generous concessions in the design of the tax will also offer stability in the taxing regime for the Australian offshore gas industry.

Will groupthink persist at the RBA?
A nine-person Monetary Policy Board of trained economists is welcome. But there is a risk the RBA will slavishly persist with the monetarist thinking that results in higher unemployment.

There is no political profit for Dutton in opposing the Voice - AFR
The Liberal leader’s aim seems to be to keep his parliamentary party together – even at the risk of the wider party’s appeal.

A narrow path to productivity reform still remains - AFR
The Liberals are dealing themselves out as a party of reform. More important is the relationship between the BCA and the ACTU.

Whose fake news can you trust? - AFR
Media outlets are increasingly fishing only in pools of their own prejudices – and this is not good for democracy.