Having lifted the cash rate 11 times in the last 12 months, the RBA risks triggering a recession if it continues on its tightening path. The sharp lift in inflation as the economy roared back to life following the COVID-19 pandemic warranted a series of cash-rate increases. But the main source of inflation at that time was not excess demand but supply shortages, which could be expected to ease of their own accord, without needing to squeeze money out of the economy to drive down demand.
Read moreProgressives are asleep to Albanese’s ambition
The Rip Van Winkles who expect the prime minister to break the election promise on the stage three tax cuts need to wake up to his plan to make Labor the natural party of government.
Read moreEconomic Note: Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) Reform
The PRRT as currently designed allows gas companies to claim 50 per cent of the value of gas delivered to market as its unprocessed value and 50 per cent of its value is caused by liquefying the gas. That is, the expenses associated with transforming unprocessed natural gas into liquefied natural gas (LNG) can be deducted from the price of LNG sold into the international market.
Read morePRRT reforms offer a fairer return to taxpayers and stability for the industry
Closing out unduly generous concessions in the design of the tax will also offer stability in the taxing regime for the Australian offshore gas industry.
Read moreWill groupthink persist at the RBA?
A nine-person Monetary Policy Board of trained economists is welcome. But there is a risk the RBA will slavishly persist with the monetarist thinking that results in higher unemployment.
Read moreThere is no political profit for Dutton in opposing the Voice - AFR
The Liberal leader’s aim seems to be to keep his parliamentary party together – even at the risk of the wider party’s appeal.
Read moreA narrow path to productivity reform still remains - AFR
The Liberals are dealing themselves out as a party of reform. More important is the relationship between the BCA and the ACTU.
Read moreWhose fake news can you trust? - AFR
Media outlets are increasingly fishing only in pools of their own prejudices – and this is not good for democracy.
Read moreRBA is squashing a mythical wage spiral - AFR
The revelation of 1.9 million temporary unskilled and insecure workers does not look like the makings of a wage explosion.
Read moreThe Reserve Bank doesn't have to be cruel to be kind - AFR
With its continuing rate increases, the RBA is not being cruel to be kind. They are the result of an unquestioned dogma.
Read moreWhy Australia Day will just die of old age - AFR
Migration and changing attitudes of the young will ensure fewer conservatives with the power to cling to Australia’s colonial past.
Read moreLiberals can’t win another climate war - AFR
If Peter Dutton takes the Coalition back to the Abbott era, then more of their seats will tumble to the teals next time.
Read moreWe must make this the year of productivity - AFR
The ACTU must realise that many of the proposals in a major new Productivity Commission report will align with its own goals.
Read moreAbandoning the Stage 3 tax cuts isn't as simple as experts claim - AFR
A Coalition campaign against a broken election promise might be enough to plunge Labor into minority government and destroy any chance of getting unpopular economic reform through parliament.
Read moreWhitlam’s frenzied three years permanently changed Australia
While arguments will persist about Gough Whitlam’s economic performance, it is his social and environmental reforms that have created an enduring legacy for Australia.
Read moreWhy the RBA should take a break for Christmas
The central bank should pause and look at the lagging data. But it is unlikely to find evidence of an inflation problem from another era.
Read moreFree trade helps keep a fragile world peace
Free trade is under attack everywhere, but the ideal is as valid now as it was when David Ricardo and Adam Smith first theorised about it.
Read moreChalmer’s challenge: confronting the structural deficit
This budget won’t fix the problem: but ageing- and productivity-related problems are increasing funding pressures, and the tax system isn’t up to the revenue task.
Read moreLabor has a good story to tell on climate
The Hawke and Keating governments created a reforming narrative of banana republic turned clever country. Anthony Albanese could do the same with the climate revolution.
Read moreAvoiding the recession we don’t have to have
There are no wage or currency pressures that would justify the RBA following the Fed into aggressive rate rises.
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