The Porter affair is draining political energy from post-virus change. Have an inquiry and deal with it.
An economic rebound is an excellent time to implement reforms to lock in the recovery and place an economy on a sustainable growth trajectory. Now is such a time. But an indignant government is missing the reform boat.
Last week’s national accounts confirm an economic rebound from Australia’s first recession in almost three decades. Yet two strong quarters of growth have not been enough to restore the economy to its pre-pandemic size.
A smaller economic pie is being divided among more Australians as they have continued to produce babies while fewer have left our shores for life abroad.
Consequently, despite the rebound, GDP per person was down 3.5 per cent in 2020 compared with 2019 and national income per person was also lower.
What could go wrong from here? Plenty.
The scheduled termination of JobKeeper from end-March and the recent sharp reduction in the JobSeeker payment will greatly reduce fiscal support for the recovery.
While the threat of a W-shaped recovery https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/time-to-worry-about-a-w-shaped-economic-slump-20200518-p54tv0 from a premature withdrawal of fiscal support has receded upon its extension from end-September 2020 to end-March 2021, the government should be cautious about cutting back too hard too soon.
The cut in JobSeeker is harsh. The payment effectively has two components: a living allowance and a job-search allowance. At the present elevated levels of unemployment, job-search costs are greater than they were when the unemployment rate was below 5 per cent. The new rate of JobSeeker therefore is actually more austere than the rate of the old Newstart.
The possible emergence of new, resistant strains of COVID-19 is also a threat to the health and economic recovery of the nation.
So, too, are ongoing restrictions on the arrival of foreign students at our universities – Australia’s fourth-largest export earner.
Even if luck falls our way, as it has with resurgent iron ore prices, it cannot last. A new economic reform agenda is essential.
Professor Ross Garnaut’s new book, Reset, provides such an agenda https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/good-bye-to-all-that-complacency-20210221-p574gg
High on Garnaut’s list is Australia’s emergence as a renewable energy superpower, exploiting the continent’s abundance of solar and wind power.
The Morrison government could be working with the eastern states to establish renewable energy zones coupled with grid-scale batteries and pumped hydro but is struggling with the hard right within its own ranks that wants to re-crown coal as king.
Trade unions and business groups worked with industrial relations minister, Christian Porter, on a package of workplace reforms, but he inexplicably included in the legislation provisions for the suspension of the Better Off Overall Test for COVID-affected businesses.
Those provisions are being removed but, now on mental health leave, Porter won’t be around to argue his case for the bill with the Senate.
Porter and his cabinet colleagues are hoping the controversy over the rape allegation against him will blow over. Media reporting from every government announcement will be dominated by unanswered questions about the alleged rape.
A closed-door inquiry by a retired female judge taking sworn statements would enable the government to get on with a reform program. It would not constitute “mob rule” as the government claims, any more than did the judicial inquiry into the failure of Hawke government minister, Mick Young, to declare a Paddington bear for customs duty. After standing aside, based on the inquiry’s findings, Young was reinstated to cabinet.
Allegations of sexual misbehaviour by footballers are handled behind closed doors by the sport’s integrity commissions. The footballer is not required to prove his innocence, any more than Porter would be required to prove his – despite his specious claim to the contrary.
As a departmental secretary in Queensland I was subjected to an eight-month inquiry by the Crime and Misconduct Commission. Whenever the inquiry looked like ending, more spurious allegations were made against me in the media, kicking it along. I was fully exonerated.
My reputation could not have been restored without the process of an independent inquiry.
The circumstances surrounding the alleged rape are horrible. Porter’s accuser took her own life. Porter is traumatised by the allegations against him when he was a 17-year-old.
In the absence of a coronial inquest in South Australia, Porter would be wise to call for a closed-door, independent inquiry and stand aside for its duration. Some of Porter’s critics would never be satisfied but everyday Australians would conclude that the matter had been taken as far as was reasonably possible.
Otherwise, the government would be open to the criticism that it disbelieved a female suicide victim in favour of one of its own men. If the government believes the matter will blow over and the women of the parliamentary press gallery and of Australia will move on, it is badly mistaken.
Craig Emerson is a distinguished fellow at the ANU, Director of the APEC Study Centre at RMIT and adjunct professor at Victoria University’s College of Business.