The leading Australians who attended a 2020 future forum a quarter of a century ago would probably be underwhelmed at outcomes. But they did pick the smartphone.
A quarter century ago, I co-convened a series of forums inviting prominent Australians to share their visions for Australia for the year 2020. Not one of them predicted a global viral pandemic. As clairvoyants they were hopeless but as 2020 visionaries they were superb. As the horror year draws to a close, it’s worth reviewing their aspirations for Australia and the extent they have been realised.
The 10 visionaries were Bob Hawke, Malcolm Turnbull, Liberal deputy leader Michael Wooldridge, Peter Garrett, Wayne Goss, Dale Spender, Ross Garnaut, Cheryl Saunders, Hugh Mackay and Rick Farley. My co-convenor was Fleur Kingham, now President of the Land Court of Queensland.
Bob Hawke aspired for a multicultural Australia of continuing natural splendour, where indigenous and non-indigenous cultures are reconciled, imbued with a deep sense of fairness, respecting its seniors as wise elders and comfortable with its enmeshment with Asia.
Hawke’s big policy idea was to abolish the states. Yet, as Wayne Goss pointed out in his forum, any referendum to get rid of the states would fail spectacularly. Goss nevertheless advocated a comprehensive rationalisation of responsibilities between the states and the Commonwealth. Although the Council of Australian Governments had been established for this purpose, meagre progress has been made.
An endearingly irascible Malcolm Turnbull showed no tolerance for Monarchists in his quest for an Australian Republic. Like constitutional law professor Cheryl Saunders, Turnbull advocated the election of a President by a two-thirds majority of the two houses of Federal Parliament. He strongly rejected direct election of the President by the people on the basis that the President would have higher standing in the community than the Prime Minister, who is not directly elected.
In the 1999 referendum the Australian people disagreed with this proposal, no state supporting the change.
Though the world wide web was only a few years old when Hugh Mackay hosted his forum, he foresaw electronic mega-communities but hoped we would not be diverted from our personal relationships. You be the judge: Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and the like certainly have had a depersonalising effect.
Wooldridge similarly hoped our cities would cater for the spiritual and emotional needs of their residents. Yet we are still commissioning reports into mental health with no official response on how to improve it.
Wooldridge prophesised a society where television sets were equipped with digital memory and citizens would own a hand-held personal digital assistant combining computer, calculator and telephone. In 2020, smart TVs and smart phones are everyday devices.
Garnaut foresaw the Asian Century, predicting the centre of global economic activity would shift from North America and Europe to Asia. His recommendation for further Australian tariff reductions has been implemented but his proposal for a guaranteed minimum income for all Australians has not. Expect more on this in his forthcoming book, RESET: Restoring Australia After the Pandemic Recession, due out in late-February next year.
Rick Farley supported the Keating government’s native title legislation while arguing for stronger rights than those provided for in the High Court’s Mabo decision. Within a couple of years, through the Wik judgement, the High Court would oblige. But Farley’s other aspiration, for the constitutional recognition of indigenous prior occupation of Australia, seems as far away as ever.
Peter Garrett envisaged an Australia in which solar and wind provided at least half its energy needs. Yet in 2020 they contributed little more than 20 per cent. If Australia remains a laggard in emission reductions, it risks being hit with carbon tariffs by a customs union of high-ambition countries that includes Europe and the United States https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/morrison-left-exposed-to-climate-damage-by-biden-win-20201109-p56cpv
Dale Spender reminded the audience that women still had a long way to go to achieve equality with men, warning that the digital age could make this harder.
Overall, how would these visionaries rate Australia today?
Ours is a multicultural society – against the protestations of the One Nation Party whose emergence would have horrified them. The mainstream conservative political parties have largely refrained from race-based politics, with the notable exception of the targeting of the Sudanese community during the last Victorian election campaign.
We have not provided the care our elders need and deserve, as acknowledged by a Royal Commission into aged care.
Whatever the official statistics might say, we do not consider our society to have become fairer – for the underprivileged, people with mental health issues or women, who continue to suffer a gender pay gap, income gap and superannuation gap.
We are a long way short of ecological sustainability and our national government is not taking climate change seriously, treating it largely as an obsession of so-called woke, inner-city elites.
Our performance on reconciliation and constitutional recognition of indigenous prior occupation of Australia has been abysmal. The Republican Movement soldiers on, with no outcome in sight. Australia is enmeshed with Asia but is having a hard time with our biggest market, China.
All told, our visionaries would be disappointed. Yet most of us could not think of another country where we would rather live. Let’s celebrate our achievements over the holidays and pledge to do a lot better in 2021 and over the next 25 years.
Craig Emerson is Director of the Australian APEC Study Centre at RMIT, a Distinguished Fellow at the ANU and an adjunct professor at Victoria University’s College of Business.